Proof

Predicted vs actual outcomes, not just product claims.

These are public example timelines built from anonymized held-out pricing cases. The point is to show where Conseq was aligned, mixed, or missed, not to pretend the model is already perfect.

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Example timelines

Examples

Aligned

Mixed

Missed

This is not a broad customer performance claim. It is a transparent proof page built from held-out examples so the product can show real prediction-to-outcome traces today.

ESCALATE

Electronics markdown triggered a competitor loop

ALIGNED

Predicted EV

-$9.9K expected value over 14 days

Predicted risk

47% modeled tail risk

Actual delta

-$15,400

Actual units

-118

A steep markdown on a high-velocity electronics bundle triggered rapid competitor matching and compressed margin enough to erase the initial lift.

Day 0 prediction

ESCALATE with -$9.9K expected value over 14 days and 47% modeled tail risk.

Day 2 signal

Competitor matching appeared inside 48 hours.

Day 14 actual

Actual revenue delta landed at -$15,400 with unit delta -118.

WARN

Inventory-heavy clearance markdown worked

MISSED

Predicted EV

-$837.7 expected value over 14 days

Predicted risk

28% modeled tail risk

Actual delta

+$6,400

Actual units

+220

High inventory pressure and strong elasticity turned a controlled markdown into a healthy clearance win without competitor escalation.

Day 0 prediction

WARN with -$837.7 expected value over 14 days and 28% modeled tail risk.

Day 2 signal

No immediate competitor response was observed inside 48 hours.

Day 14 actual

Actual revenue delta landed at +$6,400 with unit delta +220.

ESCALATE

Healthy premium increase lifted contribution margin

MISSED

Predicted EV

-$11.0K expected value over 14 days

Predicted risk

32% modeled tail risk

Actual delta

+$5,100

Actual units

-24

A measured price increase on a premium catalog slowed units slightly but improved contribution margin enough to net positive revenue.

Day 0 prediction

ESCALATE with -$11.0K expected value over 14 days and 32% modeled tail risk.

Day 2 signal

No immediate competitor response was observed inside 48 hours.

Day 14 actual

Actual revenue delta landed at +$5,100 with unit delta -24.

ESCALATE

Promo exit held after a short discount window

MIXED

Predicted EV

-$15.9K expected value over 14 days

Predicted risk

50% modeled tail risk

Actual delta

+$1,800

Actual units

-34

The catalog absorbed a seven-day promo exit with a small unit pullback, but revenue stayed positive enough that the rollback was still acceptable.

Day 0 prediction

ESCALATE with -$15.9K expected value over 14 days and 50% modeled tail risk.

Day 2 signal

No immediate competitor response was observed inside 48 hours.

Day 14 actual

Actual revenue delta landed at +$1,800 with unit delta -34.